The current diplomatic standoff over the Ukraine summit is fundamentally a “momentum game.” The United States is trying to create an unstoppable forward momentum through assertive public statements, while Russia is applying a form of diplomatic resistance to slow things down and regain control of the pace.
The U.S. strategy is to build momentum so powerful that it becomes politically costly for Russia to resist it. By announcing a timeline and an agreement, Washington hopes to create a global expectation that sweeps Moscow along with it.
Russia’s strategy is to act as a brake on this momentum. The calls for “thoroughness” and the official silence from Putin are designed to dissipate the energy of the U.S. push. By introducing friction and delay, Moscow hopes to stall the process until it can be reshaped on more favorable terms.
The outcome of this momentum game will likely be decided in the coming days. If the U.S. can maintain its assertive pace and force some form of meeting, its strategy will have succeeded. If Russia successfully stalls the process beyond the two-week window, it will have won this initial, crucial round.