The public spat between Russia and Azerbaijan has put the entire Caucasus region on edge, with neighboring countries watching nervously to see how the fallout will affect regional stability. The dispute over the 2024 plane crash has implications far beyond Moscow and Baku.
The Caucasus is a complex tapestry of alliances, rivalries, and unresolved conflicts. Russia has traditionally played the role of the dominant security guarantor, but its damaged relationship with Azerbaijan creates a power vacuum and a period of uncertainty.
Countries like Armenia, Georgia, and Turkey will be reassessing their positions. Armenia, a treaty ally of Russia, may view Azerbaijan’s newfound assertiveness with concern. Georgia, which has its own fraught history with Moscow, may see a validation of its pro-Western stance. Turkey, a close ally of Azerbaijan, may see an opportunity to expand its influence.
The incident could also impact ongoing peace negotiations and trade routes in the region. A breakdown in communication between Russia and Azerbaijan could complicate efforts to resolve long-standing disputes and hinder economic cooperation.
President Putin’s admission and promises are an attempt to calm these regional jitters and reassert Russia’s leadership. However, the public confrontation has exposed deep fissures, and the entire region is now bracing for a period of geopolitical realignment.