The business of selling predictions—from market analysis and political risk reports to consumer trend forecasts—is a multi-billion dollar industry traditionally dominated by human experts. A British AI’s recent success in a global competition is a clear signal that this entire industry is on the verge of a massive, AI-driven disruption.
The competition was the Metaculus Cup, run by a company that provides forecasts to investment funds and corporations. The eighth-place finish of ManticAI’s automated system is a proof-of-concept that threatens to upend the traditional business model of forecasting, which relies on expensive teams of human analysts.
An AI system like ManticAI offers a compelling value proposition. It can produce forecasts with a speed, scale, and persistence that human teams cannot match. It can track far more variables and update its predictions in near real-time. This could lead to forecasting services that are not only more accurate but also significantly cheaper and more accessible.
Furthermore, the AI’s ability to avoid common human biases like groupthink, as noted by its creators, represents a potential quality improvement over existing products. Clients may find that the objective, data-driven “opinion” of an AI is a valuable addition, or even a replacement for, traditional human analysis.
While high-end consulting and bespoke analysis requiring deep human judgment will likely remain, the more commoditized end of the prediction economy is ripe for automation. The performance of ManticAI is a shot across the bow, signaling that the economy of prediction is about to be reshaped by the efficiency and power of the algorithm.